European shares hit one-month high,
dollar firms on Yellen’s hike hint
- EYES ON US DATA
European shares hit one-month highs on Monday, while the dollar index rose to a two-month peak after Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen suggested that an interest rate hike in the United States may be around the corner.
Dollar opened the week by and large higher, except versus Sterling, as supported by more hawkish remarks from Fed authorities. Encouraged , Janet Yellen said last Friday that “it’s appropriate … for the Fed to gradually and cautiously increase our overnight interest rate over time, and probably in the coming months such a move would be appropriate.” And, “the economy is keeping on improving … growth looks to be picking up.”
St. Louis Fed president James Bullard said today that “markets are well-prepared for a possible rate increase globally”.As of Friday, fed fund futures are pricing in 28% chance of June hike and 61% chance of July hike.
Released from Japan today, retail sales dropped -0.8% yoy in April, between than expectation of -1.3% yoy. But the yen extends recent decline on dollar strength. Also, there are continuous speculations that the weakness in the economy would prompt prime minster Shinzo Abe to delay the scheduled sales tax hike next year.
The euro zone’s blue-chip Euro STOXX 50 index .STOXX50E was 0.1 percent higher, while Germany’s DAX .GDAXI was up 0.3 percent, hitting a one-month high. Trading volumes are expected to be thin as the London and New York markets are closed for a public holiday.
Technically, USD/JPY will be a pair to watch in the early part of the week. Currently trading at around 111, USD/JPY has taken out 55 days EMA with today’s rise and is possibly heading to 111.85 structural resistance level. Decisive break there will indicate the completion of medium term down trend from 2015 high at 125.85 and we’ll probably, in that case, see further rally to 116 support turned resistance level.
Looking ahead, a batch of important economic data from US will be the focus of the week including personal income and spending, consumer confidence, ISM indices and non-farm payroll. In particular, the job report including earning growth will be the key food of thoughts for Fed officials to decide whether to hike interest rate in June or July.
ECB rate decision and press conference will be watched but could be a non-event. Sterling has be strong recently on fading Brexit fear. The pound will look into PMIs for strength for further rise in crosses.
Australian dollar has been weak since the surprised rate cut by RBA earlier this month and will look into retail sales, trade balance, GDP and China PMIs for the next direction.
EYES ON US DATA
Reuters: This week investors will keep an eye on the all-important U.S. non-farm payrolls and the Institute for Supply Management surveys. The May jobs report is due on Friday and a solid reading could heighten expectations for a June move.
Economists expect U.S. employers to have added 170,000 jobs this month, slightly more than they did in April. Hourly wages are expected to show a 0.2 percent increase from the previous month. ECONUS
Crude oil futures remained shy of the $50 per barrel level after marking weekly gains, feeling some pressure from the stronger U.S. dollar that made it more expensive for holders of other currencies.
Brent crude LCOc1 slipped to $49.10 a barrel, after gaining 1 percent last week. U.S. crude CLc1 was down 0.3 percent at $49.18 after rising about 3 percent for the week.
The dollar’s strength took a toll on spot gold XAU=, which dropped 0.9 percent to $1,201 an ounce. It plumbed a low of $1,199.60 earlier in the day, its lowest since late February.
highlights for the week ahead:
- Monday: German CPI flash; Swiss KOF; Canada IPPI, RMPI
- Tuesday: Japan household spending, unemployment rate, industrial production, housing starts; Australia building approvals; German unemployment, retail sales; Eurozone M3, CPI, unemployment rate; Canada GDP; US personal income and spending, S&P Case Shiller house price, Chicago PMI, consumer confidence
- Wednesday: China manufacturing PMIs; Australia GDP; Swiss GDP, retail sales; Eurozone PMI manufacturing final; UK PMI manufacturing, mortgage approvals; US ISM manufacturing, Fed’s Beige Book
- Thursday: Australia retail sales, trade balance; UK construction PMI; Eurozone PPI, ECB rate decision; US ADP job, unemployment claims
- Friday: Eurozone services PMI final, retail sales; UK services PMI; Canada trade balance, US trade balance, non-farm payroll report, ISM non-manufacturing, factory orders